General Motors - The Next Bear Stearns?

GM's Skid Quickens as Crunch Raises Bankruptcy Threat (Update1)
By Mike Ramsey

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., burning cash as U.S. sales slide, is being pushed closer to bankruptcy as it waits to learn whether the auto industry will win a new round of government loans.

Only federal aid can prevent a collapse by the largest U.S. automaker, analysts including Buckingham Research Group's Joseph Amaturo said yesterday as the shares plunged to a 59-year low. Reorganizing in court protection also may not be possible, because the credit crunch has dried up financing.

``Strategic bankruptcy is not an option for GM,'' said Mark Oline, a credit analyst with Fitch Inc. in Chicago. ``This is an issue of operating or not operating.''

The prospect of a forced liquidation raises the stakes for GM's quest for new federal borrowing after saying on Nov. 7 it may run out of operating cash as soon as year's end. GM had $16.2 billion on hand as of Sept. 30, down from $21 billion at the end of June, and needs $11 billion to pay its monthly bills.

``A bankruptcy wouldn't address our immediate liquidity concerns,'' said Renee Rashid-Merem, a spokeswoman for Detroit- based GM. ``It's not an option for GM because it creates more problems than it solves.''

GM's U.S. sales, which fell 21 percent last quarter and 45 percent in October, ``would be devastated'' by a bankruptcy filing, Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner said in a Nov. 7 Bloomberg Television interview. The ``unimaginable consequence'' of a bankruptcy ``motivates us to really come up with cash in every way possible,'' he said.

Obama-Bush Talks
Wagoner, 55, is cutting jobs and shutting plants after almost $73 billion in losses since the end of 2004. He told trade publication Automotive News that GM needs an aid package before President-elect Barack Obama takes office in January. Obama spoke with President George W. Bush about the urgency for aid to U.S. carmakers during discussions about the economy at a private White House meeting, aides to the president-elect said.

Investors may be concluding that GM won't succeed. The stock slid yesterday, chopping $600 million from GM's market value, to about $2.05 billion after Deutsche Bank AG said the shares may be worthless in a year.

GM fell $1 to $3.36, the lowest since 1949, in New York Stock Exchange composite trading yesterday. The stock traded in Germany was down a further 0.7 percent at $3.34 as of 10:14 a.m. in Frankfurt trading.

Carmakers' Aid Request
GM, Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC have asked for $50 billion in aid to weather the worst auto market in 17 years, people familiar with the discussions said. That would be in addition to $25 billion approved in September to help retool plants to build more fuel-efficient vehicles.

``There's growing support in Washington, in Congress, to give government assistance to GM and the other automakers,'' said Bruce Zirinsky, co-chairman of the financial restructuring department of Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP in New York. ``The question is going to be how that gets done and at what price to the shareholders and creditors.''

The White House signaled its opposition yesterday to a proposal by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada for Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to tap the $700 billion bank-rescue package to aid automakers.

Democratic lawmakers reject Paulson's arguments that he lacks authority to do so, Senator Carl Levin of Michigan said yesterday in an interview.

Legislation's Wording
Should Paulson continue to resist using funds from the financial bailout approach, Congress would craft language to help the automakers and add it to the stimulus plan to be considered next week, Levin said. Treasury spokeswoman Brookly McLaughlin referred questions to the White House.

The failure of GM in an event where the company stops production would cost 2.5 million jobs in the U.S. in the first year, according to a study by the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

That scenario is surfacing because of the shortage of financing to let companies keep operating in court protection, meaning GM might be unable to borrow and stay in business should it be forced to file for bankruptcy.

So-called debtor-in-possession loans to bankrupt companies have ``all but shut down,'' CreditSights Inc. said yesterday in a report. The loans, which are paid off when companies exit court protection, aren't being made as lenders become more averse to risk, wrote Chris Taggert, a New York-based analyst.

``In this world, you don't go Chapter 11 reorganization,'' Maryann Keller, an independent auto analyst and consultant based in Greenwich, Connecticut, said in an interview. ``You go Chapter 7 liquidation.''

Will GM goes bankrupt? In my opinion, it is highly unlikely. If GM fails, 2.5 million employees will be out of work! This will add up about 1.5% to October unemployment rate of 6.5% = 8%. With the layoffs, consumer spending would be hardly hit and US will definitely goes into a deep and long recession. Oil price will go down, and corporate profits will decline significantly. A lot of bad news will come out soon. Be patient. What say you?

Oil prices near bottom?

Oil prices near US$60 on recession fears
Source: msnbc

HOUSTON: Oil prices neared $60 a barrel Thursday, their lowest point in about a year and a half, as a growing number of economic reports point to a long and painful recession.

The number of Americans continuing to draw unemployment benefits surged to a 25-year high, the Labor Department said Thursday, and the U.S. retailers saw their sales plummet last month to the weakest October level since at least 1969.

When the economy slows, the demand for energy fades.

One side effect: the price of gasoline has tumbled from summer highs, when a gallon cost more than $4.

Experts say gasoline could cost half that by year's end.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery fell 7 percent, or $4.53, to settle at $60.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Prices tumbled as low as $60.16 at one point, a level last seen in March 2007. In London, December Brent crude fell $4.44 to settle at $57.43 on the ICE Futures exchange.

Oil prices have now fallen nearly 60 percent since peaking at $147.27 a barrel in mid-July.

They surged above $70 Tuesday, but a crude sell-off began the following day when prices dipped 7.4 percent.

Analyst and trader Stephen Schork said the sharp decline is fallout from a yearlong bubble.
Some investors and lawmakers in Washington have blamed speculative traders for bidding up the price of oil.

"It's the old adage: markets fall faster than they rise. And this is exactly what we're seeing right now,'' Schork said.

"We knew it was a bubble on the way up. People stopped acting rationally. High prices became the justification for high prices. Fundamentals be damned.''

Also pressuring crude prices Thursday were interest rate cuts across Europe, where economic leaders were trying to spark growth.

Oil analyst Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover said crude was falling because of a stronger dollar, renewed fears of recession and weaker equities markets.

"Oil prices ... have been searching for a bottom for the last several days,'' a Cameron Hanover report said.

And despite a government report showing storage levels in the U.S. rose less than expected last week, prices for natural gas fell, too.

Meteorologist predictions of a cold winter have been pushing up natural gas prices recently.
In its weekly report, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said natural-gas inventories held in underground storage in the lower 48 states rose by 12 billion cubic feet to about 3.41 trillion cubic feet for the week ending Oct. 31.

Analysts had expected a boost of between 20 billion to 25 billion cubic feet, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

"The (EIA) report was kind of bullish actually and the market went the other way,'' said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp.

"It's just the overall malaise. Earnings today haven't been anything to write home about. We're readjusting commodities based on recessionary-like numbers.''

Wall Street slumped again Thursday, sending stocks lower for a second day after Cisco Systems Inc. reported crumbling demand.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell about 443 points, or 4.9 percent.

The dollar strengthened after the European Central Bank cut its key rate by half a percentage point to 3.25 percent Thursday, joining the Bank of England, Swiss and Czech central banks as they confront a looming recession.

The ECB announced the cut from 3.75 percent shortly after the Bank of England lowered its key interest rate by a startling 1.5 percentage points to 3 percent.
The Bank of England's cut was more than the full percentage point that most analysts had predicted and the biggest cut in 27 years.

Commodities such as oil are used as a hedge against inflation and a weak dollar.

When a central bank cuts interest rates, it tends to weaken that nation's currency, meaning the dollar typically trades higher against it.

When the dollar strengthens, it makes oil more expensive to buyers dealing in other currencies. But the continuing parade of dim economic reports weighed on global markets and on the price of oil as well.

Retailers' October sales figures showed consumers pulling back spending sharply.

A Labor Department report said the number of people continuing to draw unemployment benefits jumped by 122,000 to 3.84 million in late October.

It was the highest level since late February 1983, when the country was struggling to recover from a long and painful recession.

Other economic indicators out of the U.S. this week suggest the world's largest economy may be heading for its worst recession in decades.

A Commerce Department report Tuesday said factory orders fell 2.5 percent in September from August, much worse than analysts had predicted.

On Monday, U.S. manufacturers reported poor figures for October, showing the worst reading in more than a quarter century.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures fell 8.8 cents to settle at $1.336 a gallon.
Heating oil dropped 11 cents to settle at $1.942 a gallon while natural gas for December delivery fell 27 cents to setttle at $6.979 per 1,000 cubic feet.