Bear Market Started in October 2007 Part 2

Has the bear market ended in March 2009 (17 months later) ???

Bear market in US started in October 2007 and is expected to end in March 2010. The forecast is based on the average bear market period since 1929. Lets wait and see...

張惠妹 - 記得

One of my favorite songs by Zhang Hui Mei -记得 (Remember). This song was written by JJ Lin when he was around 19. What an excellent effort! Maybe this song is about his own feelings!

Ah Mei is certainly one of the best Chinese female singer in the world. She sings with her heart and soul, and you just can feel it. What a wonderful voice. Hats off to Ah Mei!

Enjoy!

The Yesteryears Great Songs from Great Dramas

These are "highly recommended" TVB dramas. Although I have forgotten the storyline of the first drama starring wang ze liang, the song nevertheless reminds me of some priceless moments during my school time. The second drama is, in my opinion, the best drama since the beginning of the 20th century, and one of the best in the history of TVB drama. You can learn a lot from the drama. Again, highly recommended for everyone!

Enjoy!!

The Bear Market Ain't Over Yet

World stocks plummet as auto sector reels

Mon Mar 30, 5:26 am ET

LONDON (AFP) – European and Asian stock markets dived on Monday as fresh woes for the global auto sector and extremely weak economic data triggered a rush to dump shares, traders said.

Tokyo closed down 4.53 percent as bad industrial and auto production data fed the gloomy economic outlook and traders rushed to lock in profits made last week, they added.

US automaker General Motors must undergo a "substantially more aggressive restructuring" if it is to have a long-term future, the White House said Monday in a tough review.

Publication of the report followed news that GM chief executive Rick Wagoner has resigned.
On Sunday, Peugeot said it had removed its chief executive Christian Streiff as France's biggest carmaker struggles with the effects of the international economic crisis.

"One thing is for sure... no-one should expect quick fixes to the current economic malaise," said analyst Dermot O'Leary at Goodbody Stockbrokers.

Ahead for investors this week are the G20 summit on the financial crisis and the ECB's latest rate decision, both due Thursday, while Friday sees the release of key US jobs data.

In early European trade Monday, London dropped 2.30 percent, Frankfurt dived 3.49 percent, Paris slumped 2.89 percent, Madrid shed 3.26 percent and Zurich declined 2.47 percent.

"As the week progresses, the hope that we'll see headway from the G20, rather than simply rhetoric, could offer some support," said CMC Markets dealer Matt Buckland.

US President Barack Obama has rejected suggestions of a split with Europe on how to tackle the global financial crisis when leaders of the Group of 20 rich and emerging economies meet in London.

"The most important task for all of us is to deliver a strong message of unity in the face of crisis," he told the Financial Times newspaper.

Ahead of the summit, stocks tumbled across Asia on Monday. Hong Kong share prices closed 4.70 percent lower, Seoul slumped 3.24 percent, Taipei dived 3.43 percent and Sydney gave up 1.85 percent.

"Today's fall was widely expected," Taiwan International Securities analyst Arch Shih said of Taipei's slide. "The market had scored substantial gains recently. It was time for a correction."

US shares had swung lower Friday on profit taking after a series of strong gains, as investors reassessed the outlook for recovery from the recession gripping the world's largest economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1.87 percent. The Nasdaq composite fell 2.63 percent and the broad-market Standard & Poor's 500 index shed 2.03 percent.

Ahead of Wall Street's reopening Monday, a task force set up by President Barack Obama found GM's plan to shake-up its ailing business and qualify for more government loans "is not viable and will need to be restructured substantially."

--

"A house is not built overnight. And to clear the debris, you need some time too."

Why So Serious?

Why so serious? Everyone is happy on Friday (The reason for the existent of TGIF?), but boring on Monday. Why? Tell my why!!! Everyday is Friday if you like your job. If not, then you should change your job. And soon someone will come out with TGINF. Guess what?


Answer: Thanks God Its Not Friday!!!

Simply Warren Buffett

Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.
- Turnaround rarely works.

Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.

- Experience and Knowledge are what counts in investing.

The investor of today does not profit from yesterday's growth.
- Its the future that matters.

We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.

- Learn how to understand and benefit from human behaviors. Why people tends to follow the herd? Why human ignores history? Why human are so greedy? Tell me why!

You do things when the opportunities come along. I've had periods in my life when I've had a bundle of ideas come along, and I've had long dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I'll do something. If not, I won't do a damn thing.
-When opportunity knocks, grab it tightly with both hands and legs.

You only have to do a very few things right in your life so long as you don't do too many things wrong.

-Be selective, do what you do best, and focus on what you know.

Why Malaysian Football So Hopeless??

Being a footballer myself, I think I should be able to give some comments on the topic. Why Malaysian football so hopeless?

Every player on the field, excluding the goalkeeper, is so eager to become the next Eric Cantona (or Messi - the new legend).

See here for example:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZnUr8

lcqjo

I dont understand why the defenders tend to play like strikers, though their main job is to defend. And once silly mistake happens, the defender will give "free ball" to the opponent and a big opportunity to score. Well, I (with fellow Malaysians) sometimes play football with the African people. Once, I heard one of them remarked "You are so sellfish" to a Malaysian player. I cannot tahan and burst out laughing.

One-man show is not the way to play football. We need to play as a team, pass the ball around, dont hold it for too long (unless if you want to imitate Eric Cantona and dribbles all the way to the opponent's goal - and do it quickly) and remember our fellow African friend's comment. See the way Brazil or Barcelona or Man U plays.

To be continued....

US in Economic Pearl Harbor

Buffett says US in 'economic Pearl Harbor'
By TIMBERLY ROSS – 1 day ago

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — Billionaire investor Warren Buffett says the U.S. is engaged in an "economic Pearl Harbor."

The comment from the chairman and chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. came during an interview that aired Sunday on "Dateline NBC." Buffett spoke about President-elect Barack Obama and the nation's economic woes.

Buffett is among Obama's economic advisers.

The Omaha resident says Obama listens to what his advisers say, but ultimately comes up with better ideas.

Buffett also says "there is a lot of fear throughout the country" regarding the economy, which is causing Americans to curb their spending and investing. It'll take time, but he says the United States will recover.
__________________________

Legendary Investor Warren Buffett Upbeat for Longer-term
By Barry Wood Washington 16 January 2009

Warren BuffettThe world's richest man, legendary investor Warren Buffett, tells VOA that despite a deep financial and economic crisis, he believes American stocks are cheap and he is optimistic about the longer-term future.

Buffett set-up shots from file, "Hi, I'm Warren Buffett." Press conference with Bill/Melinda Gates

Warren Buffett is not your usual tycoon. Two years ago, he announced he would give most of his fortune, over $30 billion, to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, which funds education and healthcare projects in the developing world.

In business, Buffett is also unusual. He remains a buy and hold investor."I never know. I don't predict stocks or business in terms of what it is going to do in the next month or year, because I don't know," Buffett said.

The 78-year old Sage of Omaha, Nebraska speaks simply. For example, in a down or bear market, he says, the tide goes out and fraudulent investors are exposed as swimming naked.

He mentions New York's Bernard Madoff, accused of masterminding the world's biggest investment fraud.

"Where people don't pay much attention during a bull (up) market, everybody is happy and they don't look too hard at things. And we now find out that we've had a nudist beach in Wall Street and some other places," Buffett said.

In Washington for a corporate board meeting, Buffett has no regrets about buying stocks three months ago when they cost more than they do today.

He says the secret to success is being fearful when investors are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. "They're fearful. They're fearful. And they may be fearful a year from now, two years from now," he said.

Although he says there is nothing positive happening in the U.S. economy now, he remains optimistic about America's longer-term future.

Less than a year ago, Buffett replaced his friend, computer pioneer Bill Gates, as the world's richest man. How does it feel to be at the top?

"It doesn't change my life at all. Obviously, I can buy anything I want to buy," he explains. "I have an airplane, which makes my life easier. But leave that out of the picture, I'd probably live like someone who makes $150,000 a year."


Time to go fishing?? Or Time to BUY?? You decide it!

Investing Quotes by valuelife

"The stock market usually make people suffer more than prosper."

"Only less than 10% investors can beat the market, the rest are eaten by the market."

"Investing is like gambling. You see outside TOTO shops, see inside GENTING. People have the tendency to gamble. They want to get rich fast, but it doesn't happen that way."

A Sustained Period of Low Yields Is Necessary for the Next Sustainable Economic Expansion

A Daily Snapshot of Market Moving Developments
by David A.Rosenberg

On the data front

This is a truly global recession. We learned overnight that Japanese exports collapsed 26.7% year-over-year in November; that's the biggest drop on record. Shipments to the US plunged at an unprecedented 34% year-over-year rate. Meanwhile, imports into Japan sank 14.4% year-over-year in a sign of weakening domestic demand. A similar story out of Thailand, where exports dropped 18.6% in what was the biggest drop in at least 16 years. In China, interest rates were cut for the fifth time in three months. The key one-year lending rate was cut 27 bps to 5.31%. The reserve requirement was cut 50 bps to 15.5% for big banks and 13.5% for smaller ones. Chinese policymakers are trying to head off social unrest. Take a look at page A8 of today's WSJ, "China Faces Unrest as Economy Falters." For a read of how another BRIC nation has hit a wall in the face of a deepening global recession, turn to page A10 of today's WSJ, "India's Textile Industry Unravels."

Across the pond, signs of deflation abound. Germany's import price index dropped 3.4% MoM in November on top of a 3.6% drop in October. This was well below the consensus estimate, which was looking for a 2.5% decline. In France, producer prices plunged 1.9% in November on top of a 0.9% decline in October, well below the consensus, which was looking for a 0.9% drop for the month. Meanwhile, European industrial orders dropped 4.7% MoM in October on top of a downwardly revised 5.4% decline in September. This took the year-over-year rate to -15.1%, which is the the worst on record. We also see that German consumer confidence remained essentially unchanged at 2.1 in January from 2.2 in December.

The next bailout: commercial real estate

Now that the auto-makers have secured a $17 billion bailout, the next group heading to Washington for government assistance is property developers. Take a look at the front page of today's Wall Street Journal, "Developers Ask US For Bailout as Massive Debt Looms." Developers are warning policymakers that office complexes, malls, hotels and other commercial real estate are headed into default and bankruptcy. According to Foresight Analytics, some $350 billion of commercial mortgages will be due for refinancing over the next three years. And, with credit virtually unavailable, borrowers will have give up the property to lenders.

We don't understand why so many are bearish on rates

What we truly don't understand is why it is that so many folks are bearish on interest rates when in fact we need a sustained period of very low yields to help blaze the trail for the next sustainable economic expansion: After all, isn't it good news that, because of Mr. Bond's strength and resolve, we now have the benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at the lowest level in at least 37 years (5.27%)? Mortgage rates are now down 7 weeks in a row (it does the beg the question, however, as to why it is that mortgage applications for new purchases slid at a 20% annual rate in November and are off in 9 of the past 10 months). And despite the best affordability ratios in 35 years, what did we hear from Lennar last week - that its order book collapsed 46% in the past year and backlogs are down 67%. Maybe the classic affordability ratios that use conventional mortgages don't tell the complete story - because nonconventional mortgage rates have lagged with jumbo loans still costing 6.9%.

Source: John Mauldin's Outside The Box E-Letter